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Old Posted Oct 12, 2007, 3:10 PM
brisavoine brisavoine is offline
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Originally Posted by flash110 View Post
Germany has experienced a low economical growth period from the mid 90´s and early 2000´s, mainly caused by the reunification costs, lower than France, UK and even Italy some years which lowered total fertility rates

I don't think that the reason for a low fertility rate is the bad economic situation. There are much deeper reasons for the low fertility of Germany. This low fertility rate has existed for a long time already. Back in the 1970s and 1980s when West Germany was booming, the fertility rate of Germany was already pretty low. Even during the baby boom in the 1960s the fertility rate of Germany was of course higher than now, but still lower than France's or the UK's fertility rate. It's like something has been broken in the German psyche since the Third Reich and the Nazi pro-natalist policies, I don't know.

Here is the German and French fertility rates since 1960 for comparisons.

Originally Posted by flash110 View Post
Germany´s economical recovery these recent years which increased GDP growth over Italy and France could be a reason of more net migration for the coming years considering that in Germany there´s already an acute shortage of workers for some industry areas.

That's possible, but then it's surprising that in 2006, which was the best economic year for Germany since the reunification, net migration was at its lowest with only +25,000.

In any case Germany would need to have a crazily high net migration rate just to keep its population at the current level. Like I said, with a net migration of +100,000 per year, Germany will have 68,743,000 inhabitants in 2050. With a net migration of +200,000 per year (which is more than the UK and surpassed only by Spain), Germany would have 73,958,000 inhabitants in 2050 according to the German statistical office. With a net migration of +300,000 per year (which is almost as high as the record net migration to Spain in recent years), Germany would have 78,724,000 inhabitants in 2050.

In other words, in order just to keep its current level of population, Germany would need to have a net migration of almost +400,000 every year until 2050. I don't think German people are ready for that. Immigration at that level for more than 40 years would greatly change the composition of Germany's population. It's doubtful German citizens are ready for the millions of immigrants that this scenario would mean, supposing it's feasible to attract so many immigrants in the first place.
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