Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno
My completely unqualified opinion has been that the Phoenix MSA will max out at around 8 million before leveling off it changing into a much slower growth mode.
Geographic and Climate restrictions plus the major cost advantage largely evaporating in the coming decades is probably going to keep a cap on Phoenix at around that many people.
Tucson has a pattern of being roughly 1/5 the size of Phoenix so it will cap out around 2 million and change.
A number of smaller cities and population centers still have growth potential though. Couple hundred thousand in Flagstaff, about 100K in show low, Prescott area could probably get up to around 1 million
Verde Valley maybe 100-200 thousand. A couple million in the Colorado River Cities, Nogales, Sierra vista and other southeastern towns have a lot of growth potential.
Anyway I think Arizona's growth will slow down A LOT in the second half of the century with maybe 13 or 14 million people before flattening out.
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I really hope not. When I left the Valley (2002) it was just over 3 million and it just killed me what was beginning to happen at the edges. No more agricultural land fill-in within the grid. Let's just blade the raw desert! An acre an hour! The growth since I left has actually accelerated in terms of raw numbers. It's staggering to see now where people are living and then commuting to. Theoretically, with enough water, the 3,500ppsm city with the occasional micro-regional employment center could go on ad infinitum. I just don't see how that is sustainable long term. I'd love to see the Valley top out under 6million and then start densifying. It's begun in a few areas of town (DT and Tempe specifically). I always laughed at those who said Phoenix was becoming Los Angeles. Well, LA's suburbia is twice as dense in LA County and the OC. Hopefully Phoenix can be something other than just a really big version of the Inland Empire.
I honestly don't think Tucson will grow that much more beyond simply keeping pace with the rest of the state outside of the Valley (5-10% per decade or thereabouts). It doesn't have any reason to get much bigger.