[C.]

Originally Posted by ardecila

Not what I said. The Atlanta streetcar is "development oriented transit" but it doesn't connect people to where they want to go. A regional rail line that connects several major EXISTING destinations will naturally lure development around it, assuming the cities allow it to happen. There's no commitment to build the line from the state, but the cities are ALREADY planning ahead for the development that could accompany the line. Gonzales is already planning for downtown development, the suburban BR station will likely lead to more development around Perkins Rowe, and New Orleans planners are likely looking forward to development of Plaza Tower, the Post Office site, and other lands along Loyola (basically the only place in the CBD where there is already consensus around highrise development).

The cities along the route have to be serious about promoting development around the planned transit stations. I'm hard pressed to find an example of a regional rail line that hit or exceed the initial ridership numbers that were identified in the EIS or other funding documents. They always fall short, with the rare exception of cities that aggressively supported development along the route. i.e. HBLR line in Hudson County ,NJ.

TRE isn't great considering the size of the DFW area. Metro DFW has 7.5M people, Utah achieves ridership 3x-4x higher on FrontRunner with basically the same hourly schedule and only 1/3 the population. I think FrontRunner should be the model that Louisiana looks to.

I had to look up FrontRunner. Interesting case as it feels odd for Louisiana would look to Utah as an example, but I agree it's a better case study than the TRE in Texas. The annual operating budget is $457 million, with $53.4 million coming from the farebox. So it's a much larger operation than the one in Dallas-Fort Worth.

I am a big supporter of rail transit, and I lived car-free for a number of years, but there is an opportunity costs associated in transit planning. Would the investment from Baton Rouge to New Orleans be worth while or is there another transit investment in which the money (both capital and long-term operating costs) could be redeployed to instead.

I like to see the numbers of the planned ridership vs actual. The cost benefit analyses along with running the ratios. So that's why I'm following this one with interest.

The airport connection on TRE especially sucks, once you get off the train you need to ride two separate buses and then get on the airport people mover to reach your gate, a "four seat" ride. I have no idea why anybody would do that. At MSY at least it would be a one-bus connection and the airport is small enough that you can comfortably walk to your gate (a "two seat" ride). Dallas also is not a tourism hub, and there is no large university along the TRE route (UT Arlington and SMU are pretty far away).

So yeah, I think the NOLA-BR route could easily exceed the ridership of TRE if they make the right decisions.

It's a horrible connection. I'm not sure more than a few people per week actually do it. That "connection" was obviously designed/planned by someone that never rode transit.

The cost was estimated at around $500M in 2009, or $610M in 2019 dollars, but that was a creampuff price with all toppings included (every single bridge getting replaced, etc). You could probably start a reasonable service for 1/3-1/2 of that amount, spending mostly on the equipment, stations, and the most crucial track/signal upgrades. But I wouldn't recommend skimping, since it will be important to offer a decent average speed and enough track capacity to send at least one train per hour in each direction around the freight traffic.

Also, if $500M seems like a lot, consider that the new Twin Spans replacement bridge cost $800M and the Huey Long bridge rebuild cost $1.2B. Adding a third lane to I-10 between NOLA and BR would likely cost several billion. The rail line can't pay for itself, but neither can the highway.

We shall see - these things always have cost overruns, especially for environmental considerations. One endangered species along the route could add millions of dollars in NEPA compliance if federal funds are involved.

For the record, no way this gets built for under $500 million IMO. That would be about $6.25 million a mile though some very sensitive environmental areas.

I'm keening watching with interest on this unfolds. I know it's still a loooong way away.