[ardecila]

Originally Posted by C.

Transit and land-use are linked. You want cities changing their zoning and luring development to maximize the success of the transit line. Simply linking two city centers without transit oriented development along the way is a recipe for disaster.

Not what I said. The Atlanta streetcar is "development oriented transit" but it doesn't connect people to where they want to go. A regional rail line that connects several major EXISTING destinations will naturally lure development around it, assuming the cities allow it to happen. There's no commitment to build the line from the state, but the cities are ALREADY planning ahead for the development that could accompany the line. Gonzales is already planning for downtown development, the suburban BR station will likely lead to more development around Perkins Rowe, and New Orleans planners are likely looking forward to development of Plaza Tower, the Post Office site, and other lands along Loyola (basically the only place in the CBD where there is already consensus around highrise development).

The Trinity Railway Express in Dallas-Forth Worth might be a similar project. It's a 10 mile line connecting downtown Fort Worth, DFW Airport and downtown Dallas as well as several of the suburban communities along the way. It has an annual operating budget of $113.9 million in 2019 and serves an an average weekday ridership of 6,400. The system had a total of 2 million riders last year, which equates to $56.95 per ride to operate.

The metrics look much better than the Atlanta streetcar when you consider passenger miles traveled divided by operating cost. Removing 6,400 cars from rush hour traffic is also a benefit that's hard to quantify.

TRE isn't great considering the size of the DFW area. Metro DFW has 7.5M people, Utah achieves ridership 3x-4x higher on FrontRunner with basically the same hourly schedule and only 1/3 the population. I think FrontRunner should be the model that Louisiana looks to.

The airport connection on TRE especially sucks, once you get off the train you need to ride two separate buses and then get on the airport people mover to reach your gate, a "four seat" ride. I have no idea why anybody would do that. At MSY at least it would be a one-bus connection and the airport is small enough that you can comfortably walk to your gate (a "two seat" ride). Dallas also is not a tourism hub, and there is no large university along the TRE route (UT Arlington and SMU are pretty far away).

So yeah, I think the NOLA-BR route could easily exceed the ridership of TRE if they make the right decisions.

Would it be more of a benefit if the investment went to improving the existing New Orleans streetcar network than the rail line between Baton Rouge and New Orleans? At 70 miles between the two cities along with some very sensitive environmental sites along the way, that's gonna be in the multi-billion dollar range. A lot of money unless justified by high transit useage.

The cost was estimated at around $500M in 2009, or $610M in 2019 dollars, but that was a creampuff price with all toppings included (every single bridge getting replaced, etc). You could probably start a reasonable service for 1/3-1/2 of that amount, spending mostly on the equipment, stations, and the most crucial track/signal upgrades. But I wouldn't recommend skimping, since it will be important to offer a decent average speed and enough track capacity to send at least one train per hour in each direction around the freight traffic.

Also, if $500M seems like a lot, consider that the new Twin Spans replacement bridge cost $800M and the Huey Long bridge rebuild cost $1.2B. Adding a third lane to I-10 between NOLA and BR would likely cost several billion. The rail line can't pay for itself, but neither can the highway.