[lio45]

On the other hand, it's perfectly plausible that Ontario would get wetter in the winter (I believe that's what all (or at least most) models are forecasting) due to climate change.

Climate change, implies change.

Wetter, implies higher lake levels.

We just had two "you'll see that maybe once in a century at most" years out of three consecutive years. How likely is that, statistically? It's much more likely that the old normals have slightly changed now.