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Originally Posted by Crawford
Culture can be changed. France and Sweden had a low birth rates in the past, and their numbers have improved significantly, especially among the native-born.
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Culture takes a very long time to change. In the case of France, it's only a cataclysmic event like WW2 that managed to finally change the birth culture of France.
Demographics is not like economics. It's not just a matter of making one or two policy changes, and then tadam, 3 years later you have a healthy growth rate back. No. Demographics is hellishly slow to change. It took the major upheaval and moral disaster of the biggest world war the world has ever known to change France's demographic situation long-term. I can't believe that the long-term demographic situation of Germany can be changed so easily.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
I agree with all this. I have no idea what she is thinking. It is lingering guilt from Germany's past? Merkel's upbringing as daughter of a liberal Lutheran pastor? Trying to make Germany look "nice" after the Greece controversy?
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I think what has played a great role in her decision is what happened to her in July when a Palestinian girl cried in front of her on TV because her family was going to be deported from Germany. Merkel had the right reaction back then, she told the girl in the most humane way possible that there are rules, and that although it's always sad when a family is deported, especially when the children go to school, rules have to be applied, otherwise there's no rule of law anymore, and furthermore she, as chancellor, couldn't intervene in the special case of that little girl, otherwise it wouldn't be fair for the other immigrant families.
I thought Merkel was remarkable when she said that. In many other countries, faced with a crying girl on TV, the politicians would have panicked and said something like "ok, my advisors are going to have a look at your case, we'll find a solution." Unfortunately she was criticized for the seemingly cold way in which she reacted, and it reinforced the perception of a harsh and cold chancellor (a perception already created by her handling of the Greek crisis).
I think that has affected her. She likes to be liked, like most leaders, and seeing that polls showed the Germans were in favor of welcoming the refugees, she probably decided to go with the flow and open the gates, so as to appear more humane and caring.
I don't really believe that it was a grand strategic thinking in terms of the future demographics of Germany. To me it's more like a political reaction both to the current mood among the German public and to the perception that she was a cold leader. If the mood of the German public changes, Merkel will probably change her stance on the refugees. She always goes with the flow.