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Old Posted Aug 27, 2019, 3:20 PM
FullCircle FullCircle is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: Salt Lake City, UT
Posts: 117
The skyline looks really good with all those towers!
However, let's be honest with ourselves, about 4 out of every 5 highrise proposals never come to fruition, at least it seems that's the case in SLC, so I'm going to guess on these ones. I have no insider info, just guesses coming out of my somewhat addled mind.
Tower 8 is already under construction, so I'm guessing this gets completed (though it's not a sure thing, as the site a couple blocks south on State has shown us), but being that's it's being done by PRI, I'll give this a 99.9% chance of being completed.
CCH: Given the backing of the county and city, I think this gets built, though a change in height/rooms wouldn't surprise me too much. I'll give it a 75% chance of being completed in some form.
So, playing the odds, that means none of the others will ever see the light of day. Buuut, I do think that SLC has some momentum right now, so if any of the others can get off the ground before the next recession hits, I think we'll get one or two of the others topped out. Remember how the Great Recession killed several proposals back in 2007-09? Could definitely happen again with some of these, and a recession is only a matter of time. That's why it bothers me when these projects keep getting delayed; it just gives more time for the inevitable recession to kill these projects. Of course, no one knows when this will happen but it's part of the economy, so we know it will eventually, and likely within the next two years. Given that:
Liberty Sky: I'm guessing that's where this project fits. They are taking their sweet ass time, as Boyer is wont to do, and a recession would kill it, so I'll give it a 50% chance of completion. If they break ground this year I think it probably will be finished, but the timeline has already been pushed back multiple times.
The new Carl's Junior and Utah Theater towers: They are just too ambitious for our market right now; I don't see them happening, though I hope I'm wrong. I'd give it around a 25% chance that one of the two is built. Something is likely to happen at one or both sites, I just doubt it will be 300+ foot towers.
370 Millenium Tower: I really have no feel for that one. It has been in the works for a long time, and keeps changing designs, and was sold once in there. Seems like a long shot, but Makid said it's still active. Just tossing out a number, I'd guess a pretty low percentage, maybe 25%.
So playing the odds, I'm going to guess that 3 of these will be completed, which is still a pretty good decade for us. Hope I'm wrong, of course, and all are built, but I keep getting my hopes up just to have them dashed. Regent Street Hotel did a number on my confidence with this topic.
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