A few notes as we turn toward summer, traditionally the busiest travel time for SMF and the nation, and some trends are emerging.
Travel has clearly bounced back, although in most cases not to levels of pre-lockdown 2019, but solid numbers by any metric. SMF is at better than 90% pre-lockdown traffic.
How much does this translate into new service for SMF? Airlines appear to be taking a cautious approach with most growth being a return to service rather than new markets. Already noted above is new service to SBA on Southwest 1x/day. This replaces Contour Airlines 2x/day service which was yet another causality of the lockdowns having left the SMF market in March 2020.
As mentioned, Air Canada is returning in June and matching the pre-lockdown 1x/day to Vancouver. On August 8 Delta resumes daily, nonstop service to Detroit. The Vancouver and Detroit flights were gone from the SMF destination portfolio for a crippling 26-months each.
Most other markets from SMF are at best holding their own. This is of course primarily due to labor shortages, particularly pilots. Pilot shortages can’t be solved by offering overtime or other incentives as they often are with ground personnel. Pilots have strict rules re hours flown and this results in huge operational impacts. Most of the majors are cutting flights by a few points to accommodate these shortages.
https://komonews.com/news/business/a...-shortage-woes
The pilot shortage is somewhat understandable given the wild (and wrong) early projections re deaths from COVID and the impact that would have on travel. Airlines offered thousands of pilots early retirement and other incentives to leave so that they could get those costs off the books.
https://www.ajc.com/news/business/mo...NCGTE7QD63EUU/
Obviously we could sure use those pilots now, but even with vigorous recruitment, it might take at least through end of year to return to adequate staffing levels.
The impact to SMF is negligible, but real. So while American to DFW remains at 5x/day over the summer, Alaska to SEA goes from 7x to 5x daily. Southwest goes from 4x/week to Kona to 1x/week… that kind of thing.
And still no movement on some service lost to the lockdowns including flights to BWI, MCO, and MSY.
The notable exception to this service malaise is SMF-SAN. Always a lucrative market and for many years a Southwest monopoly, the summer of 2022 sees an explosion of flights as Southwest and Alaska battle it out for market dominance. Southwest plays to its strength and will offer an astounding 20 flights a day each way between the two cities.
From 6:00am to 9:00pm Southwest offers minimum hourly service at top of hour, and two banks, 7-9am and 5-7pm, flights are every 30 minutes at top and bottom of hour.
Alaska counters with first-class, smaller jets (faster loading/unloading), a larger, and often considered the best FF program that includes membership in OneWorld, and lounges at its larger stations with 7 flights/day.
27 flights a day between SMF and SAN: Mind blowing…
Demand remains strong, but as cost drives ticket prices ever higher, that could soon change. While most airlines hedge their fuel purchases, impacts from runaway inflation should start becoming apparent soon and could push prices beyond reach of many consumers.
This is, however, somewhat mitigated by a far more robust return of business flying than anyone anticipated. Here’s a link to the ARC (Airlines Reporting Corporation) Weekly Data.
https://www2.arccorp.com/about-us/ne...april-24-2022/
Some key take-aways include Business travel has recaptured over 70% of pre-lockdown totals and this is with the two largest business centers, California and New York, still among the most impacted by the lockdown/masking madness. Business travel is up 243% over 2021.
While a 30% hit to your most robust revenue stream is brutal, it’s much better than the Doomers were screeching less than a year ago and the trend is clearly in the right direction.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...orever-changed
The caveat here remains inflation. If costs continue their record-shattering pace, all bets are off…
So far traffic at SMF Q1 2022 shows remarkable resiliency. Total pax count is 2,407,525 with over 950,000 of that coming in March alone.
This reflects a strong 2021 finish where SMF handled over 2.9 million pax in the last three months to finish at 9.7 million for the year, which far exceeded the earlier, gloomy forecasts.
While encouraging, there’s no getting around what a tough hit that is from the pre-lockdown total of over 13,100,000. There’s just no way to hide the economic destruction losing nearly 3.5 million passengers brings.
Btw - the last time SMF had fewer annual passengers was… 2015!
SMF estimates show counts about on par with 2018 for 2022. That would mean a year-end count of about 12 million. 12 million represents just over 90% of 2019 and SMF is running about 90% of 2019 totals over the last six months, so yeah… a challenge, but absolutely doable.
Acknowledging that comparisons to 2019 are probably more meaningful, it’s still fun to note that passenger counts for the first three months of 2022 are up over 100% compared to 2021. Biggest winners for growth are Alaska, Hawaiian, and United. This January, Alaska carried around 450% more passengers out of SMF in 2022 over 2021.
Southwest retains a firm hold on 1st place for total passengers carried with nearly 1.275 million pax in Q1. United moves past American for #2 with Delta checking in at #4.
International traffic is up over 85% in 2022 and even without Air Canada, it’s better than 2019 for Q1!
International counts are led by Volaris and followed by AeroMexico. JetBlue’s service to Cancun carried a robust 3559 pax in March. Southwest to Cabo is now down to 1x/week and appears to keep that schedule through Summer.
Regionally, SMF remains the fourth busiest airport in California with 1076 flights scheduled in the coming week according to Flightradar 24. San Jose is closing fast at 1075 and Oakland stays at #6 with 969.
SMF’s reign as #4 will probably soon end as more international flights return to the skies. As many of you know, domestic service for SJC and SMF is pretty even, but SJC has a far stronger international schedule during more normal times. As far as the lockdowns are concerned, they are in the distant past for many destinations and this should result in more flights for SJC that SMF simply can’t match.
As of today, the top 10 markets (by flight count/average per day) for SMF are as follows:
SAN – 15
LAX - 13
SEA – 12
LAS - 11
BUR - 10
DEN - 8
PHX - 8
SNA - 7
ONT - 6
SLC – 5
Looking forward and as noted above, 2022 doesn’t appear to be a big year for new service at SMF as airlines focus on existing markets while grappling with labor shortages and obscene inflation.
Some things to look for though are the impacts of the proposed Frontier/Spirit merger. These two airlines combine for around six flights a day at SMF with service to Denver, Vegas, Phoenix, Ontario and Santa Ana. A combined airline is expected to focus on Atlanta, where Frontier maintains a hub. Delta could see some competition on SMF-ATL in 2023.
Please note that JetBlue recently announced an offer for Spirit, so this puts a bit of a damper on any Spirit/Frontier merger talks.
Other possible locations are Kansas City on Southwest. Kansas City is expected to open its new terminal in March 2023 and I’m told that SMF would be in the first wave of Southwest’s expansion there.
And as some of you know, David Neeleman, the guy who started JetBlue and is now founder and CEO for startup Breeze Airways, recently began flights on West Coast. Among them was the first commercial service ever to San Bernardino Airport (SBD), a former military base, from San Francisco. Looks like SBD has targeted SMF for its second destination on Breeze and has partnered with a local business group to subsidize a new route to Sacramento.
Some details at the link:
https://paxex.aero/sacramento-rapid-...rways-funding/
We’ll see…
Side note - Flew my first maskless flight last week and am delighted it was to SMF. What pure joy! This delight was shared by the vast majority of passengers and by 100% of the crew. Looked to be about 10 of the 76 passengers still masked-up in ignorant hysteria or smug buffoonery on our sold-out flight from San Diego. I was in Row 2 so I had the opportunity to see everyone who boarded. A couple of us laughed at every mask clown prancing by while the FAs smirked.
Don’t want that to sound too harsh, but for two years now I’ve been screamed at that being skeptical of mask efficacy on planes was tantamount to killing grandma or "the children."
Eff ‘em…
Happy flying everyone!
