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Originally Posted by halifaxboyns
Since I was looking at the Halifax MPS (for the Former City); I decided to have a boo through the Regional Plan; especially after the recent news that the population has passed 400,000.
Now; when the plan was being written (2001); the population of HRM was 359090.
Here is what the population growth scenarios looked like; with low, average and high growth and end population numbers in 2026:
Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Low growth population (over 25 years) 52,000 = 411,090 by 2026. So obviously - Halifax isn't seeing low growth.
Base Population (2001) 359,090 + Average growth population (over 25 years) 84,000 = 443,090 by 2026. Possible that this could work; but unlikely considering HRM is at 400,000 now (with 9 years of growth being 40,910; if that level remains constant by 2019 the population would be 440,910 with 7 more years to go on the plan).
Base Population (2001) 359,090 + High Growth population (over 25 years) of 125,000 = 484,090 by 2026.
Now I did some population forcasting based on an average of 1.5 to 2.0 percent increase and by 2026 I came out with just over 510,000 - but that assumes that you have two to three years that growth remains the same (1.5; 1.5 and 1.5 and then 1.6 growth).
I did some number crunching and based on the average growth scenario; it looks like the population by 2026 would be around 450,000 - which is slightly higher than average growth, but less than high. Still pretty impressive.
Not sure whether there was a thread on this; I looked and didn't see anything. Please move if need be!
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The number of 359,000 in 2001 is based on the census and doesn't include the undercount.
Post census estimates on the other hand do include a factor for the undercount; this factor varies by city and takes into account the fact that the census is unable to record everybody (some people don't complete the census, are temporarily out of the province, etc.). So the post census estimates are a better indication of the true population. If you compare a census population number with a post census estimate then you will get a high number for the population growth (because one doesn't include a factor for the undercount and whereas the other does). Halifax's population has been growing at about 1.3% annually for the past few years. If this rate continues, then the population would be about 485,000 in 15 years (400,000 times 1.013^15 to the power of 15). This is a good steady growth.
Sometimes it is difficult to make comparisons since some forecasts are based on the unadjusted census numbers, instead of numbers adjusted for the undercount.
(source:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/imd...db&adm=8&dis=2 )
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Postcensal estimates are obtained by the component method, using the most recent census of population (record no. 3901) adjusted to July 1 and for net census undercount as the base population. For example, to estimate the population as of July 1 of a non-census year, demographic events experienced by each cohort since the previous census have to be taken into account. To the base population count, births, immigrants, net non-permanent residents and returning emigrants are added, and deaths, emigrants and net temporary emigrants are subtracted. It is also necessary to add the net interprovincial migration. This produces a postcensal estimate of total population as July 1 of the non-census year considered. The components of population change are estimated on the basis of data gleaned from various sources.
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