Quote:
Originally Posted by BG918
I think a renaissance of Great Lakes and Midwest cities will happen regardless of climate change. Maybe not to the point where they are at their previous population peaks but many will have stable growth. That’s a prediction I’ve been making for years though.
The majority of growth will still be focused on the Sun Belt specifically the Southeast. Desert and mountain areas that have been fast growing recently will level off along with California and the west coast. The northeast including NYC will continue to lose population. Overall growth in the United States will be low and mostly concentrated in inland Southern cities.
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I wouldn't classify the entire Sun Belt together. California, Nevada, and Arizona are close to their carrying capacity or well beyond that already. Florida has multiple problems. Sea level rise will put large swaths of South Florida under water in the latter half of this century while massive depletion of aquifers is causing land collapse. Florida is the sink hole capital of the US for a reason.
I suppose Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma can grow significantly still as can the rest of the southeast. How hot a climate are people willing to live in though? Surely people don't want it hotter than it already is. Then there are a slew of states that are in big trouble due to the Ogallala Aquifer running empty. They're scraping the bottom of the well, so to speak, with wells going dry all over. Agricultural production will end in these places and it will happen in our lifetimes.
I see a resurgence of the Great Lakes states but a much stronger pivot north than you. Great Lakes states will reach new peak populations and grow faster than the US average. NYC? Yes, that might decline but don't necessarily see the entire Northeast mirroring NYC. Pennsylvania and Western NY will grow like the rest of the Great Lakes region. Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana should do fine as well. Like you, I see population growth for the entire US being negligible going forward. I wouldn't be surprised if the US had the same population in 2050 as it does now. Maybe it will even dip a little.