Quote:
Originally Posted by BoiseAirport
I totally agree that the E-120 is probably the perfect sized aircraft for the route. Horizon for years used to operate 3-5x daily Dash-8 Q200 flights between Boise and Lewiston, Sun Valley, Idaho Falls, Lewiston and Twin Falls each. And there was two huge reasons that operation was profitable: fuel was low, and there was high frequency so it became far more convenient to fly rather than drive.
Contrary to what some folks think in Idaho Falls, the route was just not profitable in its final years of operation. The problem is that for this route to be attractive to the business customer and effectively compete with the car, it needs frequency -- at least 2-3x daily. Fuel is just too high right now for that to be feasible. SeaPort couldn't make it work because they were using entirely the wrong airplane for the mission. Horizon really did all they could to stimulate demand but one flight just wasn't enough and there was just too much risk and not enough reward in trying to stimulate demand through frequency, with fuel being the price it was and numerous other circumstances.
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Interesting... I don't know much about the Pilatus aircraft flown by SeaPort, I'll take your word for it and the eventual failure that it was the wrong plane for the route. Another pitfall was the fact that SeaPort had ground operations at both Idaho Falls and Boise just for this one route. SeaPort recently pulled out of its namesake Seattle-Portland route as well, showing the EMB 120s of United and the Q400s of Alaska were a better fit there too.
Clearly, there is not enough demand for several Q400s per day going back and forth from Boise to Idaho Falls. Like you said, in order for the route to be profitable, there needs to be a decent amount of frequency at a price that makes sense. Maybe 3x daily, once in the morning, once at midday and once again in the evening would be a good fit. This would be a total of 90 seats per day in each direction, slightly more than one Q400 but with the advantage of more frequent service.
After I submitted my previous post, it occurred to me that Delta and Alaska have a partnership. Perhaps if Delta were to serve BOI-IDA on EMB 120's this would allow passengers the option of connecting in Boise to Seattle and Portland on Alaska. As it is now, Idaho Falls to Seattle/Portland passengers have to first head south to Salt Lake City in order to connect to these Northwest Destinations. I would assume that Delta has more of a frequent flyer base in Idaho Falls than United given IF's proximity to the SLC hub, and strong regional ties to Salt Lake. Also, if BOI-IDA was working and profitable on EMB 120's perhaps Delta would be willing to try flying Pocatello to Boise on a more limited basis, as they already have operations at PIH to SLC.
As I look over flight schedules at IDA from United and Delta, I'm seeing that only Delta has an all-day schedule of flights. United only serves Denver in the morning and at midday, and has only a morning flight to San Fransisco. This would be a factor in profitability and fare cost if United had to extend its hours of operation at Idaho Falls. Both United and Delta are strongly hub-oriented airlines. The route would have to perform well in order to justify a non-hub route.
BoiseAirport, or anyone else, do you know how the operating costs of an Embraer 120 compare to a Q400? I would assume that per seat, it would be more expensive because the cost is shared among so many fewer passengers. I did a couple of dummy bookings on United and Alaska, and found that United successfully matches Alaska's fares until the departure date is within a couple of weeks, then it tends to be more to fly United.