Here is the relevant portion of Deb Matthews' thesis. The entire thesis can be found at
http://www.debmatthews.onmpp.ca/PhD_Thesis.pdf
4.6.5 Windsor
Windsor is one of the big surprises of this study, since, under the medium immigration scenario, it is the second-fastest growing CMA in Canada, just behind Calgary and ahead of Toronto. It is projected to almost double in size over the next 50 years if current trends continue.
Under the medium immigration projection, Windsor’s population is projected to grow from 316,000 in 2001 to almost 616,000 in 2051. The growth is projected to occur at all ages (Figure 4.11). If immigration levels were reduced to 50,000, Windsor would still grow by 70 percent to 538,000, and if immigration levels were increased to 400,000, Windsor’s population would grow by 115 percent to close to 700,000 people.
The largest source of Windsor’s growth is international migration, which, in the initial year of the projection, adds almost 10 people per thousand to its population. This growth is compounded by strong internal migration of almost seven per thousand and natural increase of close to four per thousand.
Windsor has slightly more than its share of immigrants overall. While Windsor represents just over 1 percent of Canada’s population, it is home to 1.25 percent of Canada’s immigrants, one quarter of whom are from Southern Europe. Other regions with large communities in Windsor are West Central Asia and the Middle East (12.8 percent of immigrants in Windsor), and Eastern Europe (11.2 percent). Windsor holds a disproportionate attraction for people born in West Central Asia and the Middle East, having become home to almost three times the numbers that would be expected given its population. People born in Southern Europe and in the USA are also drawn to Windsor in numbers greater than expected.
Recent immigrants have been attracted to Windsor in even greater numbers than immigrants overall, and represent 3.2 percent of Windsor’s population, compared to 2.0 percent of Canada’s population. About one-fifth of Windsor’s recent immigrants were born in West Central Asia and the Middle East, and another fifth in Southern Asia. Eastern Asia, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe also have significant communities of recent immigrants in Windsor.
Windsor is a particularly strong draw for recent immigrants from specific regions of the world. Almost 5 percent of recent immigrants in Canada from the USA live in Windsor, Southern Europe (over 4 percent), and West Central Asia and the Middle East (over 3 percent). While Windsor attracts immigrants from a wide range of regions, it attracts fewer than its share from the Caribbean and Bermuda, Central and South America, and North and West Europe.
As mentioned above, Windsor attracts a significant number of people from within Canada. Of the 26 CMAs, Windsor ranks number four in its rate of internal migration. Far more of those come from within Ontario (5.1 per thousand) than from other provinces (1.6 per thousand).
Windsor also benefits from natural increase until very close to 2041, when there will be a slight loss of 0.2 per thousand population, making it third in Canada, behind Calgary at 1.9 and Toronto at 0.6 per thousand.
All age groups increase in size over the projection period under all four scenarios, however, the increases are greatest in the older age groups. While the under-25 age group is projected to increase by 60 percent under the medium immigration scenario, the 65 and over age group is projected to come close to tripling between 2001 and 2051, with the largest increases at the highest ages.
As we have seen elsewhere, the age structure of Windsor is little affected by immigration levels. Over the projection period, the under-25 group will decline from 34 percent to 27 percent, the 25-64 age group will be relatively unchanged at about 55 percent, but the 65 and over age group will substantially increase from 12 percent to 18 percent.
The population pyramid for females in Windsor shows projected increases in all ages throughout the 50 years of the projection, with the 30 to 55-year old age bracket remaining the largest age group.
Windsor is one CMA that is well-positioned to have steady growth in the future. It has become an attractive destination for newcomers to Canada and still attracts substantial numbers from within Canada. That combination keeps its population relatively young, and for the next 35 years or so, is expected to benefit from natural increase. Unlike many Canadian cities of its size, Windsor’s greatest challenge may be to manage the growth that is projected.