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Old Posted Oct 17, 2014, 10:36 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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Rauner holds tiny lead over Quinn in latest poll

October 17, 2014

GOP nominee Bruce Rauner holds a slender lead over incumbent Pat Quinn, but the race essentially is tied. And U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin holds a comfortable 10-point lead over GOP challenger Jim Oberweis, though a lot of voters still are undecided.

So says the latest poll out there, this one prepared not for a candidate but by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.

According to the survey of 1,006 registered voters, Mr. Quinn is up, 37.7 percent to 34.6 percent. But when the sample is limited to likely voters — usually a far more reliable measure — Mr. Rauner goes ahead 42.4 percent to 40.7 percent, mostly because Republicans report they are more likely to vote than Democrats.

“It's a tied race,” institute Director David Yepsen said. “No one can predict from these numbers who will win. It's likely to be close on election night, and every vote will be important.

The survey has a margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points among all registered voters and 3.7 percent among likely voters.

More Here:

One wonders what effect, if any, the Karen Lewis news will have on the larger State races in particular the dead heat between Quinn and Rauner. It certainly hurts Quinn to a degree since Karen Lewis was excellent at energizing the progressive, Democrat base. The Republicans downstate and in the burbs are rallying around Rauner and will have an easy route to the executive post if Quinn's liberal Chicago base does not turn in big numbers. A heated Lewis-Rahm race might not result in a Lewis victory, but it could have resulted in huge progressive turn out in Chicago and a large number of votes against Rauner.

From this prospective Rahm and Rauner are in the same camp and, not surprisingly, they share a lot of common donors like Ken Griffin. An uncompetitive race in Chicago means no extra stoking of the base for Quinn and hurts his chances. I'm sure Quinn would love nothing more than a progressive firebrand like Lewis touring the South Side and firing up the union machine.

Rahm and Rauner is a dream team for going after unions, pension obligations, and pillaging other states for jobs (or at least fighting back!).
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