Quote:
Originally Posted by pesto
You have to get over name-calling and especially over oil. I don't believe that there is anyone left who believes that commuter cars will be primarily oil driven in 25 years when HSR is done.
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Um, I certainly don't believe that the majority of cars will be non-oil driven is just 25 short years
Given the current political incentives, I think there's just as much a chance that we'll see gasoline directly subsidized to keep prices reasonable as anything else in 25 years.
If we've seen anything from this HSR project, there is a lack of will to use government power to push through big projects without being nickel and dimed by various small stakeholders (call them NIMBYs, whatever) or gouged by contractor cost inflation (a US-specific problem across all projects, not just transit). I don't see why this would be different in developing the new infrastructure needed for large-scale movement to new car types. Easier to just kick the can down the road. We're finishing up a Bay Bridge that was 400%+ over budget, and there were zero political consequences to that...but talk of any type of increase in gas tax is a political third rail. "Market" prices in gasoline will simply not go up enough to make the switch that you're implying in that time period, without some major switch in current geo-political realities.
Now, maybe if we have some type of complete political meltdown (national or state level) and re-writing of the current constitutions and/or political structures, maybe.