Posting here due to relevance regarding recent state laws and reforms mandating housing construction targets for localities:
https://planning.lacity.org/odocumen..._High_Res..pdf
Los Angeles' 2021-29 Housing Element upzones for 1.4 million additional new housing units in order to meet it's RHNA target of constructing nearly 500,000 new homes over the next decade
LA's existing zoning, on paper, could easily accommodate its state-imposed 486,000-unit housing production goals. However, IRL, not every parcel will be redeveloped to the maximum density allowed for in zoning, and not every redeveloped parcel will be built to the maximum possible density allowed by zoning. This is how, for the past few decades, despite on paper showing that current zoning rules allow for enough housing production to accommodate the state's RHNA goals, most California cities in fact end up constructing far less new homes and falling far short of their goals. Recent legislation has changed this somewhat, with laws like AB 1397 requiring cities to incorporate “likelihood of development” into their site capacity calculations in producing their zoning plans for the 6th 8-year RHNA cycle, in order to account for the fact that not every suitably zoned parcel will be redeveloped during the next 8 years, and not every property owner will necessarily want to redevelop their property.
LA partnered with the Terner Center to create a statistical model that would use recent residential development trends observed in the data as the basis for estimating future residential development, using data on permitting between 2015 and 2019 (5 years) to model the likelihood of new units being permitted on each Housing Element site, as well as the share of zoned capacity that would be developed over the next 5 years. The model accounted for parcels’ zoned capacity at the time with and without bonuses, market conditions and other factors.
What was found was that, even under current zoning rules and housing development programs, when accounting for factors like "development potential on vacant and underutilized sites, planned and approved development projects, and non-site-specific development potential that provide additional alternative means of meeting the RHNA", there would only be a total development potential of 230,947 units, far short of the RHNA of 486,000 units. As such, in order to bridge this deficit, the city identified 243,254 sites for their realistic redevelopment potential through the model developed with the Terner Center that should be rezoned for a up to 1,432,059 additional new housing units. The breakdown of this rezoning programme are listed below:
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Rezoning Strategy: |Parcel Count: |Total Units: |
Community and Neighborhood Planning (CPU): |33,749 parcels|627,638 units|
Residential Opportunity Corridors (OPP RC): |3,477 parcels|74,903 units|
Opportunity Avenues (OPP RC2): |5,316 parcels|23,643 units|
Commercial Opportunity Corridors (OPP C): |667|5,248|
Transit Opportunity Corridor Areas (TOPP C): |272|1,022|
TOC Expansion in Higher Opportunity Areas (TOC EXP): |11,792 parcels|150,402 units|
50% Density Bonus (DB50): |18,908 parcels|401,540 units|
Parking Zones (P): |1,032|4,736|
Adaptive Reuse (ARO): |10,153|43,128|
Micro Unit Regional Center (MURC): |1,250|21,639|
Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU): |48,797|4,141|
R2/RD Zone Update (R2RD): |64,570|18,079|
Affordable Housing Overlay (AHO): |34,034 parcels|45,516 units|
Public Facility Zone (PF): |6,407|7,116|
Faith-Based Owned Properties (FBO): |2,865|3,552|
Total New Zoning Capacity: |243,245 parcels|1,432,059 units|
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The bolded rezoning strategies are explained below:
Community and Neighborhood Planning (CPU):
Basically communities must produce individual rezoning plans to accommodate the maximum additional housing capacities in their community plans. A total of 16 Community Plans (four West Los Angeles plans, three Southeast Valley plans, three Southwest Valley plans, two Downtown plans, the Boyle Heights plan, the Hollywood plan, the Harbor-Gateway plan and the Wilmington plan); as well as three neighborhood Plans (the Orange Line Transit Neighborhood Plan (TNP), the Cornfields Arroyo Seco Specific Plan (CASP) and the Slauson TNP) will be in the process of being updated during the three-year rezoning period.
Residential Opportunity Corridors (OPP RC & OPPRC2):
Residential (R) zoned lots in Higher Opportunity Areas along certain corridors can be rezoned to allow for multi-family development, with an affordable housing requirement. The strategy assumes rezoning will occur on qualified sites fronting all major Boulevards, as well as certain Avenues located on a High Quality Transit Corridor (with 15-minute service all day, including Metro NextGen Lines).
Boulevards and Avenue designations are indicated in the City’s 2035 Mobility Plan. All Boulevards and Avenues on a High Quality Transit Corridor would qualify for a higher tier of incentives to allow multi-family buildings with minimum densities and mid-rise floor area ratios (3.0:1). Avenues without high quality transit would qualify for a lower scale standard, permitting at least four units per lot with a density bonus to allow six units building to certain contextual low and mid-rise forms (designated as OPP RC2).
TOC Expansion in Higher Opportunity Areas (TOC EXP):
Most Higher Opportunity areas are currently unable to take advantage of the Transit Oriented Community (TOC) Affordable Housing Incentive Program due to density limitations and the five-unit base density threshold needed to qualify for the program. As part of the Rezoning Program, residentially zoned sites including Residential (R) and Commercial (C) zones may be permitted at higher minimum intensities (mid-rise FAR levels up to 2.5) with higher affordability requirements.
50% Density Bonus (DB50):
The Rezoning Program includes a potential update of the City’s Density Bonus ordinance to allow for up to 50% density increases citywide in exchange for the maximum amount of affordable housing economically feasible.
Affordable Housing Overlay (AHO):
Projects that commit to significantly deeper levels of affordable housing should qualify for the largest development incentives. The Rezoning Program anticipates creating development incentives for projects that include at least 50% affordable housing in a wider array of areas of the city. While the state density bonus law already provides significant incentives for 100% affordable housing on sites that qualify under AB 1763, including density, additional height, and parking reductions, the Rezoning Program would extend incentives into other areas of the city and complement state rules. It is anticipated that these projects will not require a discretionary action, even when it would otherwise be required (similar to streamlining provisions in SB 35). Sites would allow at least 2.5 stories, 1.75:1 FAR, and mid form-based density limits for affordable housing development in most residentially zoned areas of the city.
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Over the course of the next 3 years, the City will have to follow through and implement its rezoning strategies. I don't expect that all 1.4 million new units of upzoned capacity will be built in the next 8 years, as such an hypothetical increase in housing basically doubles LA's housing stock and population. But if it can meet its RHNA requirement, LA will increase its housing stock (and correspondingly population) by up to a third of its current housing stock by the end of the decade. This should substantially deflate the rapid rise in housing costs in the city, though LA, being an attractive coastal city with plentiful jobs, will likely remain more expensive than most other American cities.