[LouisVanDerWright]

^^^ That's assuming the addition of more candidates eats away at Rahm's numbers and doesn't just shatter the resistance vote into a million pieces. The last election went to run off because it was immediately in the aftermath of the school closings issue. Even then Rahm was only 5 points away from snubbing the runoff alltogether. So if we assume he still has a 45% loyalty block like 2015 all that has to happen is for 5% of the population to not care as much anymore because they've forgotten about or cooled off over the school closings issue that's now over half a decade ago. Chuy was a very strong candidate backed by a very motivated and powerful special interest group. I doubt any challenger as qualified or well known will emerge.

Rahm also has a deadlock on the wealthy and educated portions of the electorate. As we've seen over and over again, those demographics have grown while poorer groups have largely fled the city. Maybe it's not enough to swing things 5%, but I think the combination of the growth Rahm has brought about and a lower enthusiasm from groups like CTU means he will eek this one out without a runoff. I'm thinking he will get like 50-52% of the vote in the first round.