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Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 11:36 PM
picard picard is offline
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Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
It's anything but a guess. It's a calculation by these statistical offices based on the shape of the age pyramid and the population momentum. Population is like a big steam ship, it can change course, but only very slowly, due to its inherent momentum and the shape of its age pyramid. That's why it is possible to make projections over a few decades (which would be totally impossible with, say, the economy, which can change course radically over just a few years). The only variable that can swing a lot is immigration, but they have made different projections based on different net migration assumption, and like I've already said, it would take a very high sustained net migration in Germany, and a very low net migration in France to have Germany with a larger population than France in 2050. Not totally impossible, but not very realistic (why would France and Germany, with no border between them, and coupled economies, have such strikingly diverging migration patterns over 41 years?).
Brilliant, is there a word for such perfect 'wrongness' your last sentence is great, as all the immigrants did indeed chose germany over france, you pondered why that would happen, well it did, its like the calais camps, immigrants seem to prefer to go to a select group of countries (germany/uk), this obviously reflects in the big growth rates of those two countries compared to france, but i wont make any long term predictions, after reading yours of a few years ago, in this thread, it seems like a bad idea
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