Quote:
Originally Posted by brisavoine
In the German case, migratory movements don't compensate anymore.
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That´s true but migration rates are easier to increase according to the countrie´s necessities. Germany has experienced a low economical growth period from the mid 90´s and early 2000´s, mainly caused by the reunification costs, lower than France, UK and even Italy some years which lowered total fertility rates even more and gradually diminished net migration while France experienced a relatively satisfactory economic growth. Germany´s economical recovery these recent years which increased GDP growth over Italy and France could be a reason of more net migration for the coming years considering that in Germany there´s already an acute shortage of workers for some industry areas. In addition, the large postwar generation which accounts for the major working population in Germany today will retire starting from about 2020 and this will increase the demand for migration even further. On the other hand, measures taken by the german goverment to tackle low fertility will take many years to have a significant effect on total fertility rates. But I agree if population growth in Germany and France continues as it is now, France´s population will surpass germany in some decades.