The French statistical office INSEE has published its new population projections for the next 50 years in France.
Here is the link:
http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/docume...&ref_id=ip1320
It shows a more rapid increase of population than what the previous population projections published 5 years ago forecasted. This is due to a- the new French census, started in 2004, which has shown that the French population was higher than what was previously thought, and b- the increase in the French fertility rate (the TFR on which the previous population projections were based was 1.90, whereas the new population projections now use a TFR assumption of 1.95 for the next 50 years, althouth this is still lower than the observed French TFR which is closer to 2.0 than 1.95).
As a result of this more rapid increase, the population of France is now forecast to reach
75.8 million in 2050, which is
2.3 million higher than was forecasted 5 years ago. Given that the population of France was 65.4 million in 2010, that means an increase of 10.4 million in 40 years, which is the size of a country like Portugal or Tunisia.
INSEE extended the population projections to the year 2060. In 2060 the population of France is forecast to reach 77.2 million people. Not that these forecasts are based on a rather modest net migration assumption of +100,000 per year. If the net migration is +150,000 per year (which is closer to what's observed in the UK, but still much lower than what was observed in Spain and Italy these past years), then the population of France in 2060 would reach 80.7 million.
The French population should hit the 70 million mark in the year 2023 according to INSEE (or even 2021 if we use a TFR closer to 2.0, which is the current TFR of France, INSEE having been a bit more conservative in their forecast). That means in about 12 years from now France should have 70 million inhabitants.
Last but not least, after the French and German statistical offices published their new population forecasts this year, it now appears that the French population will pass the German population much sooner than was previously thought. The population of France is now forecast to pass the population of Germany in the year 2040, at which time France will become the most populated country in the EU if neither Turkey nor Russia enter the EU.
Here you have the population projections for France and Germany from 2010 to 2060. The net migration assumption is the same for both countries, i.e. +100,000 per year, which is what has been observed in France these past years, but which is far higher than what is currently observed in Germany, where net migration is now negative. If net migration in Germany remains smaller than +100,000, or worse, negative, as is now the case, then the German curve would drop much more than in the graph below.
