The French and the German statistical offices have just published their provisional birth figures up to the month of August. In the 8 months from January to August of this year, the number of births in Metropolitan France (the European part of France) increased by 3.0% compared to the previous year. If this is continued in the 4 last months of the year, it means Metropolitan France is on course to register about 810,000 births this year, the highest number of births in Metropolitan France since 1973 (the last year of the French post-war baby boom), and the fertility rate would most probably go over 2.0, which hasn't happened since 1974 (in 2007 it was at 1.96, in the record year 2006 it was at 1.98).
In Germany, in the 8 months from January to August, the number of births increased by 0.15% compared to the previous year. If this is continued in the 4 last months of the year, it means Germany will have about 686,000 births this year, only marginally more than last year.
For an historical perspective:
Metropolitan France:
Two last years of the French baby boom:
1972: 877,506 births
1973: 857,186
End of French baby boom:
1974: 801,218
Nadir of 1976:
1976: 720,395
Recovery of 1980-1981:
1980: 800,376
1981: 805,483
Nadir of 1994:
1994: 710,993
Year 2000 effect:
2000: 774,782
Record year 2006:
2006: 796,896
Decrease in 2007:
2007: 785,985
This year:
2008: could be 810,000 according to provisional figures from Jan. to Aug.
Germany:
Two last years of the German baby boom:
1970: 1,047,737 births
1971: 1,013,396
End of German baby boom:
1972: 901,657
Nadir of 1975:
1975: 782,310
Recovery of 1989-1990:
1989: 880,459
1990: 905,675
The past four years:
2004: 705,622
2005: 685,795
2006: 672,724 (record year, the lowest number of German births ever)
2007: 684,862
This year:
2008: could be 686,000 according to provisional figures from Jan. to Aug.
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