Quote:
Originally Posted by JHikka
Last I checked the federal proposals are still proposing splitting SJ in two (East/West) so who is West Long replacement and who is East Long replacement 
I'd imagine Long runs in Harbour but i'm on the outside-looking-in on this one. |
Federal maps are all but final; Williamson picks up the west side (bizarrely including Carleton) and loses everything from Pokiok to Hanwell to Tobique-Mactaquac. He also picks up Burton which Fredericton-Oromocto sheds. So it's basically an existing seat with 18,500 new Saint Johnners, 5,000 new Burtonians, 56,000 continuing rural voters from McAdam to Studholm, and less 12,000 people from Kingsclear, Hanwell, Harvey, and Dumfries/Prince William.
Conversely, 'Long's district' only adds 18,800 people in Quispamsis and loses the aforementioned 18,500 across the river. 63,000 voters remain in the riding from before. So it's definitely Long's- 7,000 more.
Interestingly, that's enough of a loss for Fundy Royal for it to pick up all of Riverview, which Moncton had to shed. Basically a long trade from fast growing to slow: Riverview from Moncton to F-R > Quispamsis from F-R to SJ > West side from SJ to NB Southwest
Completely plausible scenario: Long runs in Harbour and wins, Holt loses, another PC majority, Liberal leader Long