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Originally Posted by VANRIDERFAN
Since the other one has descended into a soapbox for some folks, how about a reboot on the chances of the NDP to return, the Conservatives to remain or the Liberals to become relevant.
NDP control Winnipeg and the North they win simple as that.
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Well the last poll I saw had the NDP in front of the PC's by 11 points. Stephenson has had some major cabinet shuffles to do as a large number of Conservative MLA's have announced they will not be back for the next election. The premier is dropping all kinds of spending announcements, including a number on social issues, but they seem to have little effect on polling numbers so far. The PC's have their spring budget this year to make one last huge splash, but it seems the bloom is off the rose no matter what she does.
Wab Kinew has been avoiding controversy, but has made a number of public statements criticizing the PC's, as is his job as Opposition leader. The NDP have a full slate of candidates, and apparently $$ in the bank for the next election.
The Liberals seem to be a non-factor right now.
I believe you're right that Winnipeg is the key. Rural areas almost always vote Conservative. All in all, unless the Conservatives have some kind of enormous win that means Winnipeg can't resist voting for Stephenson, the NDP will form the next government.
Of course, seven months is a long time in politics. If Stephenson pulls off a gigantic coup that benefits the province, or Kinew makes a huge blunder, things might change.