[cdnguys]

I’ve been looking at some key indicators for growth of Saint John area and it’s quite interesting. I compared to Moncton, not for competition reasons, rather because Moncton is the gold standard for growth in the province and offers context.

First the StatCan Labour / population growth report:

For month of October, 2022 - employment grew double the rate of Moncton at 1,800 new workers compared to 900 in Moncton. For the previous 12 months, employment in Saint John is up by 3,600 compared to loss of 2,500 jobs in Moncton (this isn’t labour force, rather actual employed individuals). Saint John region added 300 new people in October, 2022 and 2,700 over the past 12 months. This is half of Moncton which is 600 for October and 5,100 over last 12 months - so if we can grow at 50% of Moncton that’s amazing considering how well they are doing. In the last month, the labour force grew by 900 in Moncton, and 1,500 in Saint John. In the last 12 months, Moncton’s labour force dropped by 4,200 while Saint John’s increased by 1,500. Tracking the StatCan reports from May 11, 2021 census, Saint John’s regional population is now estimated at approx. 134,500.

To see if these numbers are jiving, I checked CREA stats as there is typically a correlation. For September and October the Saint John region’s real estate market was more resilient than both Fredericton and Moncton. Home sales in Moncton were down 37.6% for October, and down 29.2% in Saint John. For the 5 year average, Moncton is down 22.1% and Saint John 14.8%. Looking at 10 year average, Moncton is down 2.8% but Saint John is up 3.9% for the month of October. I know there are many variables that affect those numbers (like huge growth in Moncton and slower growth in Saint John in the past) but interesting nonetheless.

Lastly I checked the federal job bank - Saint John is at an all time high of 651 listings (approx 2,500 to 3,000 jobs). Typically this number is around 250 to 300. For comparison, Fredericton is at 486 and Moncton 830.

Antidotally, you can just tell the city is busier - I mean Pizza Pizza is opening up 3 locations this year and 2023. Restaurants now turn people away they are so busy or have to wait in long lines to be served - something you’d see in Moncton or Halifax in the past but not here. We have several employers that are looking to fill 100+ jobs, including Federal government jobs.