[sgera]

Originally Posted by Stephen Ave

You probably already know this, but in case people aren't aware, it's not necessarily due to the struggling oil economy, it's because the CMA for Ottawa has increased in area adding an extra 1,200 square kms. Calgary has actually grown by more people than Ottawa over the past 5 years using the previous boundaries. I'm not saying the Ottawa increase due to adding extra land isn't legit, only that it's not necessarily economy related, though the hit on oil and gas over the past 5 years would still be part of the reason. If Calgary's economy was doing better, they may have still held onto 4th place even with Ottawa's CMA area bump.

Not to through further gas on the fire, but for those gleefully celebrating Calgary's demotion 'back to where it belongs', they may be disappointed in 5 years or less. Even if the two cities grew at the same pace, Calgary is very close to adding Foothills MD, which would give Calgary an 80K boost. The commute rule statistics have been changing over the past 5 years, and the MD was narrowly missed to being added to Calgary's CMA this past census. It's likely going to be added next census.

Well...not sure i agree. I think the stats canada CMA estimates based on 2016 boundaries overestimated growth in Calgary and Edmonton over the last few years...and underestimated growth for Ottawa....if we assume all had the typical of 2-3% undercount...that would suggest that the NCR Ottawa-Gatineau is well north of 1.5M (we'll find out later in the year) and Calgary / Edmonton are lower than recent estimates. Using 2021 boundaries, no doubt that the NCR gained 20k people from the inclusion of Arnprior and Carleton Place, which is legit ...if you drive out there and see how much new housing construction is going on with Ottawa residents moving out further to seek cheaper housing it's clear that these are new 'suburbs of ottawa'. If we fast forward five years from now...just as Calgary gains Foothills...one can expect Ottawa to gain Kemptville and Rockland at a minimum as folks look for the next fringe suburb to escape housing pricing affordability.