Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician
Lets get real, Chicago is going to get blown away by Houston in population some day.
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Houston doesn't have room to grow fast enough to "blow Chicago away". The city proper doesn't have the infrastructure to accommodate appreciable density. And the kind of growth suburban Houston is experiencing makes Vernon Hills or Mundelein seem like Paris. Adding a few more beltways surrounded by low quality housing isn't going to attract residents in and of itself. Right now, Houston depends on growth economics to keep growing. But in 20 years when the suburbs that were built in the late 80's are falling apart and need infrastructure replacement, they will need to increase their taxes. And the people who live there will decamp for some other sprawl on the edge of town, increasing the cost of living for everyone in the area while decreasing the appeal of the region without adding population. This happened to most legacy American cities already, but Houston doesn't have a core that can sustain it. There's no lofts or walkable areas in the center of the region that artists and start-ups can re-populate. Once part of Houston starts to rot, it's hard to see what keeps it from spreading. There's no natural beauty or cultural amenities or nice weather or urban charm in the area to slow the collapse. I've been there dozens of times and it's the only city I visit that I like less each time I go.
I suspect that the decline of the petrochemical industry alone in the next couple decades is going to hurt Houston's growth quite a bit. But it's easy to imagine a few summers with 115 degree heat and hurricanes in the autumn could be a historical turning point for the city the same way that the '68 riots were for Chicago, L.A. and Detroit.