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Old Posted May 12, 2020, 2:25 PM
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ardecila ardecila is online now
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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^ We do have other ways of measuring the impact of Covid, it's just that the media and government PR folks have focused everyone on one stat for simplicity's sake. Plenty of data are publicly available to any journo, scientist, or citizen who wants to look.

Excess death studies do sort of get at that problem. They're not widely publicized because they can understate the problem to the lay observer. Deaths in Illinois from March 8-April 11 were up 13% from the average year. 13% doesn't seem like a lot but that still equates to thousands of people, especially over a longer period. The number of excess deaths recorded was more than twice the number of official Covid deaths, suggesting (but not proving) that more than half of the fatal Covid cases are not being reported.

Also, shelter-in-place is probably reducing the non-Covid deaths at the same time, due to fewer car accidents, less street crime, etc so even some of the deaths that are not considered "excess" because they fall within the normal range are still probably due to Covid.

So Musk's idea that the numbers are somehow inflated is just bullsh*t.... if anything the official numbers understate the problem, potentially by a factor of 2 or 3 or even higher. We just don't have a great way to get more accurate numbers... this is why the recommended social distancing and shutdown measures SEEM more severe than the numbers would require.
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Last edited by ardecila; May 12, 2020 at 2:36 PM.
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