Quote:
Originally Posted by IanWatson
I've come around to the idea that opening needs to be very slow, because I think the reality is that it will be absolutely impossible to clamp down again.
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Another big problem is lag time. Detecting and adapting to a new spike in cases would be challenging.
The virus was doubling in known cases every 2-3 days in some places, and it can take 1-2 weeks for new infections to develop serious symptoms and be tested.
Then again the worst-case scenario was places with no measures whatsoever (e.g. people going to conferences and St. Pat's parties at bars). I suspect we will find that some modest dinner parties and the like do not increase transmission significantly, and that it's dominated by "super-spreader" events or clusters in high-risk environments like care homes. I think mask wearing will also be a significant improvement with low cost (any cloth mask designed to prevent transmission
from the wearer and worn by most people; not necessarily N95 masks).