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Originally Posted by LouisVanDerWright
Except this time it is different because central banks are buying and hording trillions of dollars of bonds, Europe's e tire yield curve is negative (wtf?!?), and there's a massive trade war going on with China now exporting massive deflationary signals. Those are all things that very much bear on the bond market that have never happened before. That's not to say there won't be a recession soon, but that is to say that yield curve inversion is not happening because a recession is imminent or expected. It's happening because investor expectations have been warped by a variety of events that may or may not be accompanied by two negative quarters of US GDP.
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In every late stage expansion, as the yield curve inverts, there are always unique factors, never experienced previously, and certainly never experienced previously in combination/to degree etc, which many cite as rationale for why this time is different. These folks are of course nearly always wrong.