Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster
When in recent memory have you seen a condo completed in 20.6 months?
General rule of thumb is one month down one month up for excav. Lobby and podium floors are around a month each then 2 weeks per floor forming.
So on a standard 30 storey condo with 4 levels of U/G parking and a 3 floor podium:
- 8 months excav/parking forming
- 3 months ground and podium
- 12 months tower
So 23 months in and you've only topped out, you haven't even finished the units. Envelope and finishing usually last another 10-12 months.
Let's take Ultra in Surrey as an example. Easy greenfield site with plenty of laydown and no difficult site conditions. Broke ground late Nov 2015, today they still do not have their occupancy, so it will be well over 3 years to occupancy for a very standard metro Vancouver tower.
So given that 36 months is a pretty standard time for a mid sized condo, with larger condos like Brentwood taking 48+, smaller condos would need to be finished in 10-16 months to have an average of 20 month construction time. That just does not happen, not even woodframe.
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Until recently even SFH time lines could be measured in years for the CoV. SFH also don't meaningfully add to housing stock, even if stats reflect a new SFH having multiple suites, this is usually the case with all existing stock but the suites are not account for in stats because of compliance issues.
Anyone in the building industry today knows the extended timeslines due to skilled trade shortages. These shortages are prevalent not only because the market is busy, but because we have structural issues preventing kids from entering trades.
Its all about promoting STEM and not how to rough wire a house. Combine this with non competitive wages and higher cost of living to anywhere else in Canada and we have the problems that we do. Buildings standing not worked on for weeks, or even months as builders wait for a drywall crew to free up, or a framing crew, or whatever the trade necessary.
Secondly, I expect these population numbers will be on the low side. We have a lot of big positive news for the City business wise over the next 2-5 years. This has a knock on effect that I expect will only increase demand over the medium and long term.