Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster
I would disagree with this.
500,000 new units to 2040 means 23,800 units per year.
44,000 units under construction today means there are roughly 14,000 units being delivered a year since average construction timline is about 3 years per project (2 years for smaller low rise, 4 years for larger more complicated projects).
Given this I would say there is no way we are keeping pace and it is ONE of the reasons we have affordability issues in this city.
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But the current pace of growth in the region is around 30,000 new residents per year (about 1.3%). The average number of residents per unit, as of the last census, is around 2.4. It should also be noted that the statistics do not include conversions or secondary suites (I am not sure whether laneway houses are included...)
Housing starts have also been high in recent years: 21k in 2015, 28k in 2016, 26k in 2017. There are estimated to be 24k housing starts in both 2018 and 2019. According to the CMHC data, completions for 2018 were a staggering 25,000. That is almost one unit COMPLETED per new resident (edit: here is the CMHC link for housing completions:
https://www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/hmip-p...Name=Vancouver).
Also, I don't believe the 3 year number is accurate. The data I see (from 2016) shows downtown construction takes 35.8 months, but the average for the CMA, for all types of new home construction, is only 16.5 months.
http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economic...s.pdf?sfvrsn=2