Quote:
Originally Posted by YOWetal
The model might say those two but it would likely be harder to predict. In 2011 federal election they got 25% in Ontario which translated into 11 seats. Some of which were won by well known candidates in less liberal friendly ridings. I don't know who provincially could punch above their weight. Probably Kathleen Wynn herself? Maybe some former mayors.
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I'm not sure we're in 2011 territory anymore. In that election the NDP and Liberals basically tied at 25% (but the NDP got more seats). Current polling has the NDP in the 30 range and the liberals in the low 20s. If that is correct (and we all know polling isn't as accurate as it used to be) then the Liberals would have a hard time keeping the 416 ridings and small cities like Kingston and Guelph they held in 2011.
I think you're right that a prominent local politician can buck an overall collapse (as Elsie Wayne and Jean Charest did in the Tory collapse of 1993), but Team Wynne is lacking in star candidates.