[LouisVanDerWright]

The inevitable alternative to pension reform is a hard default. If the government can barely service it's debts now, it's not going to be able to do it when Fed Funds rates are 4%, what if they go to 6, or 8, or 10%? That will be it, Illinois entire operating budget will go to debt service and we will see a scenario like Rauner's Budget impasse where vendors will all be suing each other to see who gets their invoice paid. They will descend on Springfield like a pack of starving hyena's fighting over whatever scraps aren't going to interest payments. Eventually the scraps will run out and the state will hard default on it's debt, their bond rating will go to FFF, and they will simply be locked out of credit markets.

No one will lend them a dime and most of the operating budget will be already earmarked. At that point the budget will be forced to become truly "balanced" (not fake balance right now where they count proceeds from the issuance of debt as "revenue") and total tax receipts will have to equal total expenditures. Given the State amendment on pensions, it is likely that all state services will cease and the only thing we will be able to pay is Pensions and interest on debt accumulated to fund pensions in the past. Since there is no State level bankruptcy who knows what will happen. It's likely the Federal government will have to pass legislation specifically addressing Illinois. The content of that legislation will depend on who is in power on a Federal level.

All those pensioners in Florida and AZ better hope Trump doesn't get reelected because it's likely the day of reckoning will occur in the next six years.