Quote:
Originally Posted by the urban politician
Another prediction:
The Chinese growth will accelerate. The larger the established population base and services for them (grocers, social networks, etc), the more of a destination these communities will become. It’s even possible that growth rates here will begin to outpace NY/SF for the simple fact that it’s cheaper, plus it’s no longer out of the way since the community base is already here.
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I hope it will accelerate - I think it has and I think people can see it in the quality of food. There is a big difference between Chinese food of Chicago in 2010 and Chinese food of Chicago in 2018. A lot more authentic places opened, much better, etc.
As far as outpacing rates of NYC? I doubt it. If you were talking only about Manhattan, then I'd agree with you because Manhattan itself isn't growing much with respect to Chinese population. However, Queens and Brooklyn are. Chicago is cheaper than these places, but these places that Chinese are going into also aren't Manhattan prices.
The Chinese population of NYC as a whole from 2010 to 2016 grew an estimated 89,309 people. For San Francisco, that was a growth of 13,689 Chinese people. Chicago and downtown Chicago for rate is not much below San Francisco city. However, NYC is adding a lot - in Queens and Brooklyn. Chicago is outpacing Manhattan.
Queens: +41,139 Chinese people from 2010 to 2016
Brooklyn: +37,643
Manhattan: +8189
State Island: +2491
Bronx: -1153
As far as acceleration in Chicago of Chinese population, here are the growth rates:
2010 to 2011: +1079 Chinese people
2011 to 2012: +1780
2012 to 2013: +1725
2013 to 2014: +617
2014 to 2015: +3611
2015 to 2016: +1108
I guess if it grew an average of say 1300 people per year, then you'd be looking at a little under 60,000 for the city proper around 2020. If it averaged minimum of +2000 per year then you'd be over 60K for the city proper, which would be pretty good considering there were just under 43,000 in the city in 2010 and in 2016 there was an estimated around 53,000.