Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon
The big factor is what you think interest rate is going to be on this plant.
5,100 GWh is worth a lot. Depending on your power prices, $250M to $300M per year. ($50K-$60K/GWh).
Wind is getting down there in cost, but storage is very expensive. I don't know how many days storage is needed if we stop building dams, but it will increase pretty significantly after a while.
Overnight storage essentially doubles the power of solar power right now for off-grid applications in sunny climates. The batteries will get cheaper, but the bigger gaps you have to fill in with intermittent supply the larger the cost is.
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Interest rates are creeping up, hopefully not too much more.
I thought the original $8B pricetag showed approximately 12-15c/kWh wholesale pricing for 50 years in today's dollars. That's quite expensive vs. what current dams provide. Hydro is it's own battery and certainly very flexible there. But if the price of the dam has increased and we're pushing 20c/kWh to breakeven, you really need to reconsider whether this is worthwhile.
One thing that does perplex me is that electricity demand in BC seems relatively flat. BC Hydro keeps predicting future demand increases, but they have yet to materialize. Electric Vehicles should provide some of that increased demand, but who knows... especially if residential prices continue to increase at double the rate of inflation, there will be serious conservation efforts.