Quote:
Originally Posted by WaxItYourself
A greenhouse gas is a gas with a dipole moment, or uneven distribution of electric charges, and an absorption frequency that exists within the planets blackbody emission spectrum. The bending vibration of CO2 absorbs at a frequency of 15 microns, near the peak of the planets emissions curve. This band has been decreasing in outgoing radiation due to the increases in atmospheric CO2. A doubling of CO2 alone will cause an increase in downward radiation of 3.7W/m^2 which will cause an increase of about 1C. With feedbacks that doubling of CO2 is, on average, expected to be 3C. There are other variables affecting surface temperatures though.
I notice someone in this thread making the claim that over the past 30 years models have failed. This is absolutely true. At least for the models of before 2000 or so. This is because they did not incorporate one aspect of natural variability known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the associated Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It deals with things like increased trade winds, greater ocean heat uptake, deep ocean currents transporting that heat through areas such as the Indo-Pacific throughflow. Satellites measuring the energy balance at the top of the atmosphere indicated that the heat was still being retained as per know atmospheric physics. It just wasn't showing itself in the surface measurements and was being transported elsewhere. If the PDO/AMO cycle is detrended we follow much the same trajectory that models that did not calculate the slowdown show. Meaning we are on track for the same amount of warming. And now that the PDO has change phase from negative to positive we are once again on track for a large warming event over the next decade or two (If solar activity doesn't fall to a Maunder-type minimum but that is another story). 2016 was the warmest year in all data sets.
Warming is expected to strengthen the ENSO cycle. It is possible that natural factors will be affected to the degree that El Nino will be more frequent. The area we live in is rather largely affected by the ENSO cycle. The long term trend shows yearly precipitation has increased outside of the ENSO cycle. It has decreased in summer and increased in all other seasons. I, too, find it doubtful that Vancouver will become similar to San Diego but that is not a reason to write off the science behind climate change as some in here seem to be wanting to do.
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Not being expert in this, I have no idea if this is nonsense or solid science. I am going to assume the later and so expect that you know a lot more.
So, how about giving the background to what you have laid out, and then unpack what you said with some more explanation, detail, even references. This is something that requires us all to become better informed and educated. You would be doing a good service. I suggest taking it one step at a time, post by post, so we can discuss as well.