Quote:
Originally Posted by csbvan
Even at the low end of the ratio, it would appear that in the last five years housing starts have exceeded population growth by a fairly substantial margin in the City of Vancouver. It could also be that Vancouver's growth has ticked up as well; we will find out in a month or so I assume.
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Population growth in the past few years would relate to net housing completions (not starts). Those would be between 2,200 and 4,800 a year, or about 16,000 in 5 years. That seems to fit the population growth pretty well.
The housing completion numbers will no doubt be greater in the next two or three years, and the estimates of population change are in part based on that, so may well reflect a higher number for a while.
Bear in mind that there's a whole lot of 'other stuff' that drives the net population change number in those estimates; with the older population (boomers) starting to die off, their average household size falls a bit as couples become singles, for example. The birth rate has tended to fall as well - family size has been trending down. (That's not necessarily fewer women of childbearing age having children, but a greater likelihood of having fewer children - so there are more one child families than there used to be, and far fewer with a lot of kids).