Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmyjones
I always find it strange that people can't see the long term trends of technology improving over time and extrapolate. It's always the same arguments as to why "X" (Computers/SSD's/Cell Phones/Solar Panels/Electric Cars etc. etc.) will never hit the mainstream.
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Because that only works for some types of technologies. As I said in an earlier post, some technologies (nuclear fusion, flying cars, maglev trains, space colonies) have been imminent since at least the 1950s but never received widespread adoption because future extrapolation of cost or technological improvement didn't work. From Sputnik to Apollo 11 took 12 years. People that extrapolated the future of space technology in 1969 based on 12 years of amazing progress are probably disappointed by what the "future" looks like in the present.
To extrapolate a future where electric cars are widespread, fast-charging stations have to become ubiquitous (who will pay for that?), the price of electricity has to fall significantly or the price of gasoline has to rise significantly (100km of charge costs about $3 in ontario, 100km of gasoline costs under $2 in a smallish car), batteries have to double or triple their capacity for a comparable size and weight, and the price of electric cars has to fall by about 50%.
Is it possible these things will happen? Yes. Is it probable? Not sure.