Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
We've already hit 400km range and 30-60 minute recharge times; that alone is enough for at least 90% of the home market. Very few home users of cars regularly need to travel more than 400km in a day; and when they do, they're typically not doing it all at once, so there's plenty of opportunity for a half hour of down time in there. Even for a road trip to Toronto; just stop at a rest stop and grab a burger, not that big of a pain to have to kill 30 minutes.
Moreover, there's critical mass of improvement now. Billions of dollars in development and major upgrades well on their way in the pipeline; ranges of up to 1000km, improved battery compositions, substantially reduced capital costs, dramatically expanded network of fast charging stations (there will be hundreds of them in Ontario alone by the end of this decade).
The story of electric cars in 2016 is looking a lot like the story of smartphones in 2005 or desktop computers in 1985: a niche product that is rapidly destroying obstacles to widespread use. Back in 1985 only like 5% of households in North America had a desktop computer and pace of adoption was slow with many questioning why households would want to buy one... but anyone watching the trends thirty years ago could have seen it coming. There's a reason IBM invested billions in the development of the x86 PC in the early 1980s, just like how companies across the world are investing billions in electric cars right now.
|
A Tesla takes 9.5 hours to charge in a dryer plug and 52 hours to charge with a regular plug. Not sure what car takes 30 minutes to charge (that would certainly be a breakthrough).
400km doesn't get you very far in most of North America, particularly if you don't want to plan to fully drain your battery and plan for a contingency (traffic delays, accident). It would preclude a lot of day trips Ottawans often take as well as getting as far as Toronto or Quebec City (which are straightforward with a regular car).
Those improvements you're talking about are all hypothetical. I agree that when cars cost about the same as gas cars and can go 1000km on a single charge they might be widely adopted, but that is an unknown amount of time in the future (if ever).
There were 6,933 electric car sales in Canada last year, compared to overall sales of 1,898,485 cars and light trucks. Getting from a 0.36% market share to a significant portion of the market requires years of exponential growth. Your computer analogy is is an interesting one, but I don't think it is 1985 when millions of PCs were being sold at various price points and for various uses, I think is is more like the early 70s where computers had a niche market among hobbyists.