Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
The NDP candidate in Nepean was nominated yesterday, can't remember who it is.
With the NDP surge a Conservative hold of both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton is looking a lot more likely now. The main Liberal vs. Conservative action will be in Ottawa West-Nepean and Orleans. The NDP have a chance in Ottawa-Vanier if they continue to lead the polls.
Regionally, there's only three races in the 613 worth watching outside Ottawa:
1) Glengarry-Prescott-Russell: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
2) Kingston and the Islands: Possible NDP gain from the Liberals
3) Bay of Quinte: Possible Liberal gain from the Conservatives
.. and even then, those possibilities are not very high.
The 613 is never a particularly difficult battleground. Notably all local results here did not change here between 2006 and 2011, despite the large number of seats that changed hands in that time period.
|
Also the CPC vote gain in that time frame (in raw numbers) was not exactly significant, despite about a 15 percentage point gain province-wide. That suggests the vote is mostly inelastic and the parties all have solid bases of support for their totals, not a lot of swing voters.
Interestingly, I find Nepean the safer CPC seat than Kanata-Carleton despite them being equal on paper, due to candidate selection. It seems the Conservatives nominated a good candidate for Nepean, but a bad candidate in Kanata-Carleton (would have been good in the old Carleton-Mississippi Mills riding).
In the rural 613, agreed on those - I'm not too sure on Bay of Quinte being a swing riding, since under those boundaries I believe it would have gone PC in the 2014 provincial election (the Liberal vote was more concentrated in the western part of the riding, particularly Cobourg and Port Hope).