Quote:
Originally Posted by 1overcosc
Projecting the latest EKOS poll (which puts Ontario support at 36% NDP, 26% LPC, 26% CPC) onto individual ridings using the model at www.tooclosetocall.ca results in Ottawa-Vanier being an NDP gain, and Orleans and Ottawa West-Nepean being Liberal gains, with both Nepean and Kanata-Carleton being CPC holds.
Ottawa has plenty of competitive ridings this time... of the 8 ridings in the city, 6 of them (all but Carleton & Ottawa-Centre) are reasonably in play between at least two parties.
Ottawa West-Nepean is probably the biggest battleground as its tight. With the NDP surge, if it lasts, OWN will be a three way race. Ottawa-Vanier and Ottawa South could be in play between the Liberals and the NDP if the NDP momentum continues to build. Nepean & Kanata-Carleton are both potential Liberal gains (Kanata-Carleton more so). Orleans is probably foregone as a Liberal gain but it will still be fought over. Ottawa Centre on the other hand is probably a certain NDP hold, same with Carleton and the CPC. |
Don't forget Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which still has the rural east/southeast. And that riding will also be tight. So 7 tight ridings in Ottawa (make it 8 if including the Pontiac riding but I think NDP will have the edge over the Liberals and Conservatives) The higher francophone proportion could help the Liberals (even though Lemieux is Francophone himself), but their candidate is relatively unknown much like other ridings in where they can win (Nepean and Ottawa-West-Nepean).
Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer are shoe-ins for the NDP. It might be easier wins there than in Ottawa Centre especially in the Gatineau riding. Hull-Aylmer could have been a tremendous race if former mayor Yves Ducharme had won the Liberal nomination instead of a no-name. Petite-Nation (the 4th riding with parts of Gatineau) should also be an easy win unless the Bloc continues to progress further following the return of Duceppe as leader.
I'm wondering if Cullen gets the nomination in Ottawa-West Nepean it will give them a better shot at that riding. Although he has been in politics long enough.