Not sure where Raise the Hammer got their figures, but they're not the same as the
Ministry of Finance's projections from last fall.
MOF provides more conservative forecasts. Waterloo is still projected to be larger than Hamilton, surpassing it in population between 2016 and 2021, but the future difference is not quite as drastic in MOF's latest numbers:
Year.....Hamilton.....Waterloo
2006........523.6.........498.5
2011........535.6.........523.8
2013........545.6.........534.8
2016........558.8.........552.6
2021........581.6.........584.7
2026........606.4.........618.0
2031........631.5.........650.9
2036........655.3.........682.5
2041........677.6.........712.7
Long range projections can really be affected by assumptions and small annual changes in growth rates, if they hold up over time. We'll have to see how it plays out, but key planning decisions in Hamilton and Waterloo Region will definitely affect what happens in each jurisdiction (along with economic and demographic trends for Ontario, and Toronto and the GGH).
Current city leadership doesn't seem to offer much cause for optimism that Hamilton will break out of its slow-growth pattern. There's a good argument that growth will happen
in spite of the limited vision of the politicians and their willingness to embrace good planning, ensure the city is both attractive to commercial/industrial investment and "open for business" so that investment actually happens, and supportive of intensification by making sure it has all the things it needs to flourish. But will it be all it can be? Hamilton's future may end up being mostly driven by Toronto's growth engine, or instead it could be led by progressive leadership within the city. The choices are at hand.