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I don't know about that. He might receive support from several of the urban councillors, but he'll have to convince the suburban/rural ones that the CDP is best. If they're getting tougher on the plans, he might be successful with his positions. In fact, he might not be as bad as we think for other wards - would he support redeveloping Booth Street Complex and how would it be realized? I feel like he might get a fair amount of support or be successful.
Then again he could be another Diane Holmes in that he tries hard and has some successes, but doesn't have much success due to other councillors' positions. It would still look good to the electorate that he tried hard and had some successes, and might be re-elected instead of replaced. In any case, I really hope he pulls through with bike lanes all over, as we really need them.
Actually, what has Diane Holmes done that she receives such accolades from her constituents and residents of other wards? She only got one bike lane for Laurier three years ago, but has she been advocating for bike lanes elsewhere (Bank?)? I feel West Centretown/Little Italy/ Chinatown was neglected. I want to see some love given to those parts of Ottawa, as they do need it and have lots of potential.
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For downtown politicians like Holmes, a lot of it comes down to the type of person you are, and the words and ideas you constantly preach (OK, this isn't just a downtown thing). Sure, I'd agree that her achievements were limited, but she advocated for all the things the vocal people in her ward wanted (except high-rises). Remember, it was THE CITY that didn't deliver, not Holmes.
She always cast herself as the steeped-in-NDP-progressiveness rabble-rouser, fighting against the big, bad, developer-funded majority voice on council.
As for Leiper, it could be true he'll have a rough go, but I think that unless we see an influx of tall condo proposals like those of a few years ago (NONE of which have been built, or probably ever will), the community's feelings for him might not switch so suddenly.
Even if they did, I'm sure he'd master the art of demonizing his predecessor, much like he did with the incumbent during the election.
On the development front, Hobbs got a raw deal. The condo influx, which started on the tail end of Leadman's reign (and contributed to her ousting, despite her failed attempts to stop anything from happening in her ward), fell mainly on the shoulders of Hobbs. No councillor has veto power, and a reasonable person could put themselves in he position and ask "What could anyone have done?"
I would say there were a number of improvements that occurred in the ward thanks to her, and that influx of condos? Where are they? No towers going up on Parkdale, none on Somerset, just the low-to-mid rises along Wellington-Richmond. The neighbourhoods look an awful lot like it did 4 years ago.
Anyway, timing is everything. In a ward that experiences no change, you can have a term-over-term dynasty. In a place that changes rapidly, you get rapid councillor turnover like we've seen in Kitchissippi.
The bus detour-LRT trench business is the most likely to affect Leiper, as those issues have not yet come to pass. If you campaign on the typical platform of 'vote for me and I'll make it better' and you can't deliver on it, the public won't care that you're a different councillor than the last.