[mhays]

Apartments should boom because the market is crazy for urban living, and midsized office towers should do well with the economic recovery because workers tend to like urban locations assuming the city is seen positively enough. But I'd put condos in the moderate category, and larger office towers will be difficult.

The 1980s office boom was based on cheap federally-backed credit, which allowed developers to overbuild on spec. That's not happening again. Now you generally need to pre-lease, and big towers have a big disadvantage in taking much longer to build and also costing more per square foot. Some can build on spec but they'll tend to limit their risk, and it only works if just a few jump in.

The 2005 condo boom was based on artificially-cheap/available credit plus a feeling of urgency and euphoria among buyers. Neither appear poised to come back, due to policy and in the latter case until the bust is forgotten by enough people. The presale financing method will return when prices justify construction by enough margin, and buying makes sense even to moderately cautious people.

Hotels are back in many markets, and can be part of mixed-use buildings at least, as well as mid-sized independent towers. If you're building a huge hotel, it'll be more cost-effective to do a wide slab rather than go really tall.