[McC]

Over the past 20 (even 30?) years, the Liberals have consistently polled high between writs and underperformed on election day. Paul Wells has a a good line about this. And except for the big jump in 1994, their electoral results have been on a pretty steady decline for decades. If you think that the Liberals are in good shape, and haven't read Wells' last book, I would suggest you do so (and then meet me back here!), if you have, I am curious where your optimism comes from?. I don't count them out -- JT has performed surprisingly well so far, and made some astute choices about his team, etc. -- but rookies rarely win against incumbents in Canadian politics, and PMSH is one heck of an incumbent.