The mid-campaign NDP surge is nothing new to politics, but it rarely sustains through to election night. What is not being reported is the high levels of undecided voters who have yet to set their minds on who to vote for. Mind you, support for the NDP has never been at this level even at any point during a campaign.
If you look regionally, the surge for the NDP is mainly in Quebec, where they may actually gain some 20-30 seats at the expense of the BQ. In the other parts of the country they are taking from both Liberal and Conservative support, more from the Libs than the Cons. For anyone that is not a Harper fan this is terrible news, as the NDP surge, if it sustains, splits the left vote in Ontario and may allow the Cons to pick up enough seats to form their long-coveted majority.
At this stage (based on the April 26 Ekos poll) support looks to be distributing in a manner that will see Parliament with 139 Conservative seats, 80 NDP seats, 61 Liberal seats, 27 BQ seats and Canada's first elected Green MP.
Is there an NDP/Liberal coalition government on the horizon?
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"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul"
-George Bernard Shaw
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