[coalminecanary]

The problem is, once the urban boundary has been expanded, the zoning and land use is completely in the hands of the city (right now the land is provincially controlled).

The city has proven to easily bend to the interests of developers (this is not a shock to any of us here). The most recent example is the parcel near the QEW that was converted from employment lands to retail (CATCH et al fought it and in the end the developers prevailed).

Once the aerotropolis lands are serviced there will be quite a few very rich and very strong entities pushing for all sorts of development on this fresh earth, and they are not going to solely be the commercial developers we are being promised. Hamilton has historically been very weak at saying no to developers - especially the big boxes and little boxes (tract homes). The one glowing exception being the rejection of trinity at the MIP, but that is only one attempt which failed compared to many dozens that have succeeded in wrong-headedly developing potentially valuable employment land.

Beyond the huge risk of servicing this land for businesses that do not exist, is a darker risk of underhanded tactics being used to push the city to the whims of speculators etc. I don't want to devolve into conspiracy theories, but without an actual demonstrated commercial demand for this land, we have to calculate all of the risks, and "settling for homes and retail" is a huge risk unless the perverse and unattainable "100% commercial uptake" number can actually be achieved.

Once this land is serviced (up front, using taxpayer dollars), the forces of the developers are going to be very, very strong.

On top of that, the trunk sewer is conveniently going to be buried in nice green clean farm lands all along the southern urban boundary. That sewer line is going to make those lands very enticing, which could result in even more urban boundary expansion desires.

This is all just BAD planning no matter how you look at it.


edit to add:
I think it would be wholly appropriate for council to ask for an investigation into who owns the land before making these decisions. It certainly would not hurt to have this information.

also:
Before the election, I sent an email to all of the councillors and asked them if they were willing to investigate the possibility of legally creating a restriction on the aerotropolis to ensure that homes are never built on that land.

Not a single one answered me.