Quote:
Originally Posted by WarrenC12
I read one time that accuracy is 50% for tomorrow, 50% of that (25%) for 2 days out, and so on.
However the warm/sunny weather we've had in the last month is certainly drier and warmer than normal... the law of averages suggests a giant snow dump in the next few weeks. The kind that slows Metro Van to a crawl in the best of times.  |
You're basically right. Forecast skill declines per day approximately as you describe. The 14-day trend posted by our ambitious friends at the weathernetwork is nothing more than model error beyond 3-4 days. Nothing about that forecast is accurate... is it really going to rain on the 16th??? Climatologically speaking, probably (based on historical stats). However, anything is possible... a modelled ridge of high pressure doesn't form as strong, or maybe the storm track shifts north or south.
Its too early to be predicting the olympic weather beyond trends. So if you want to go with a historical trend, using El Nino historical weather patterns... its probably not going to be that cold.