[markbarbera]

There is no clear opportunity for a conservative majority. Polls done within days of a call are rarely indicitaive of the eventual outcome. In fact they have been completely contrary to the final outcome.

Harper has called the election because the clock was running out on him. Too many scandals were surfacing, the Canadaian economy is in decline, and an imminent 2008/09 budget deficit forced him to jump into this election now.

And the first few days have been rocky for the Conservative campaign, what with early morning 'war room' press conferences being unattended by major media, and ill-thought-out online 'bird poo' ads making the first week look like amateur hour. And, as far as the Green debate fiasco goes, the Harper optics are very poor - in a democratic election, would a real leader boycott a debate? I think you'll find most Canadians have no objection to her participation in the debate, and I predict the decision to exclude her will be revesed in the days to come.

The real test will be if the attack ads the Consevatives have been airing against Dion the past year stick in the voters' minds through the entire campaign. The Liberals are countering these ads heavily this week, and Dion is coming out stronger than expected thus far.

In addition, Layton is focusing his attacks solely on Harper and is ignoring the Liberals. This will ultimately work in favour of the Liberals, much as Layton's focussed attack on Martin benefitted the Conservatives last time round. And the Conservatives don't have Zacchareli to lob a grenade into the middle of this year's campaign either.

My local predictions for the election:

Ancaster - Dundas - Flamborough - Westdale
Gordon Guyatt NDP

Hamilton Centre
David Christopherson NDP

Hamilton East - Stoney Creek
Larry Di Ianni Liberal

Hamilton Mountain
Tyler Banham Liberal

Niagara West - Glanbrook
Dean Allison Conservative

And, in the end of it, we will have yet another minority government. What a waste of $400 million!