Saudi Arabia is almost certainly lying about their ability to increase production.
Peak Oil for Saudi Arabia? (April 26, 2006)
http://raisethehammer.org/blog/220
Saudi Oil Production Down 8 percent (March 2, 2007)
http://raisethehammer.org/blog/520
Saudi Arabia: No More Oil for You (April 21, 2008)
http://raisethehammer.org/blog/984