Looking at nominations...
- PCs have 24 candidates selected and 5 conventions scheduled this month. Glen Savoie and AAM are the last two incumbents who have neither been renominated nor confirmed their retirement.
- Liberals have 34 candidates selected and 1 convention scheduled this month. All incumbents have been renominated (albeit Holt is not running up north, but in Fredericton).
- Greens have 28 candidates selected (25 listed on Wikipedia) and do not provide a calendar of upcoming nominations. All 3 incumbents renominated.
- Alliance has only two nominees and does not provide upcoming nominations, either. Interestingly, party leader DeSaulniers has not been nominated yet. A quick look at their website shows a pivot to the left. Odd cycle to do that in, with two more viable options on the ballot.
- The NDP also have two nominees and no public calendar. Their leader White is running against Higgs, for some reason. Their website has not been updated since March 2022, demanding stronger mask mandates.
I know the election is ~5 months out but the PA and NDP seem totally moribund. I doubt they come close to fielding full slates. Maybe the NDP benefits from a dead cat bounce and beats its 2022 numbers, but the PA is guaranteed to slide back from 9% (deceptively low number, since they didn't run in any French seats last time). Trying to picture the median PA voter with Higgs absorbing their caucus and shifting right, and it's kind of hard. The PA was basically a Kris Austin vehicle and without him I don't think they stay around long.
I've found it a little weird how the federal NDP have been content to let their provincial branch in NB melt away into nothing, when their NS branch got 21% and 6 seats in an acceptable 2021 performance. Did the Greens just eat their lunch with progressive voters and partisans that extensively?
Obviously none of the three leading parties have these chronic issues, but they each have problems. Greens seem stuck at three MLAs and Coon is getting long in the tooth. They haven't made their desired North Shore and rural Anglo inroads (I'm extremely sceptical they could achieve the latter). Liberals have to claw their way from 3rd and sometimes even 4th place in urban Anglo ridings to overcome their horrible vote distribution. PCs functionally don't exist anywhere French except for relict populations in Madawaska, so they need to basically run the table in swingy-ish urban Anglo ridings to keep power.